PSCI 383
Population Politics Spring 2026
Division II

The fundamental force in politics is population. At least, that’s the claim behind the famous phrase “Demography is destiny.” Around 2060 global population will begin to decline for the first time since the Black Plague swept Eurasia in the 1300s. China and Japan are already shrinking while Nigeria is on track to become the second largest country in the world by 2100. In the developed countries, democracy is turning into gerontocracy with significant implications for the welfare state. Most developing countries will get old long before they get rich, missing out on their ‘demographic dividend.’ As three-fourths of the world’s children will be born in low and lower-middle income countries by the end of the century, political struggle over immigration into Europe and North America will only become more intense. The future distribution of power both between and within countries will be fundamentally altered by which populations are growing, which are shrinking, and where they live. This research course offers an overview of political demography from both an international and a comparative perspective. It introduces students to key concepts in demography and works through them across several topics such as geopolitics, civil conflict, economic growth and development, democracy, the welfare state, immigration, nationalism, and government attempts both historical and contemporary to control populations. Will an older world be a more peaceful one? Will Western countries become more conservative as liberals have fewer children? Will mass immigration solve or exacerbate low fertility problems in rich countries? Are today’s nationalist movements born from demographic fear? Should governments get involved in population engineering? Is demography destiny?